The world fight against terrorist organizations
How will the world fight against terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, Islamic State after withdrawal from Afghanistan?
The US, British, and NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan this summer. The Taliban is getting stronger and stronger with each passing day, and attacks by al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State is on the rise. Now that Western military resources are not available in Afghanistan, how will terrorist elements are prevented in Afghanistan?
Western intelligence officials still believe that these extremist groups intend to sit in Afghanistan and plan terrorism in Western countries, just as Osama bin Laden did on September 11, 2001.As US President Joe Biden announces the completion of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on September 11, British policymakers are increasingly worried.
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The uncertainty of the situation in Afghanistan has created a real fear that what has been achieved in the last 20 years by paying a heavy price against terrorism will be completely wasted.
John Renee, a regional affairs expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said: "The problem is that the situation could deteriorate so rapidly that the Afghan government could not control it despite external US cooperation.
But that's what President Biden has always thought. Joe Biden visited Afghanistan as vice president in 2009 and 2011 during former President Obama's administration. Even then, he said, rebuilding the country was a waste of time and that the United States should instead focus on airstrikes and Special Forces operations to combat terrorism.
The Pentagon disagreed, and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in his memoirs about Biden that Biden had always been wrong on every issue of foreign policy and national security over the past 40 years.
So what will be the practical form of the West's counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan after 9/11 this year?
Drone attack
Drone strikes may increase. The use of drones or remote-controlled aircraft (RAPs) or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as they are called by their real names, in the time of former President Obama when Joe Biden was Vice President So there was a lot of priority.
Frequent drone strikes in Pakistan's remote tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and in large parts of Yemen where al-Qaeda leaders were hiding had frozen their operations, according to intelligence officials. Because of these attacks, commanders had to constantly change their positions and could not stay in one place for more than one or two nights. It also made it impossible for them to keep in touch and always feared that when a guest left, they would be hit by an 'unseen enemy' missile. ۔
But drone strikes have been controversial. Their use has always been a danger, certainly not for operators sitting in air-conditioned shipping containers thousands of miles away in Noida or Lincolnshire, but for citizens around the targets.
Despite the fact that there are very clear scenes on the consoles or screens of the drone operators, there is always the fear that no civilians will come here at the last minute like in Syria and This has happened many times in Iraq.
More than once, the Islamic State's 'executioner', known as 'Jihadi Jones', was targeted by the US military, but at the last minute was found in the vicinity of civilians. The attack had to be abandoned. Drone strikes in Yemen has always drawn strong objections from human rights groups, who have repeatedly targeted harmless tribal groups as armed groups.
Across the Red Sea, in Djibouti, the foreign minister said he had always welcomed drone strikes against members of the Somali militant group al-Shabab and was ready to say so on camera.
Access to intelligence agencies
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the British intelligence agency MI6 and other intelligence agencies have forged close ties with the Afghan intelligence service, the NDS, to provide early warning of threats.
This week, a Western security official said he would continue to receive help from the NDS after the evacuation, only to change procedures.
It is unlikely that the Taliban will be part of the Afghan government in the future. So will the Western intelligence agencies are able to exchange intelligence with them after fighting them for so long? "It's very difficult to imagine," the official said.
The important question is to what extent the Taliban were truthful when they assured Doha that they had severed all ties with al-Qaeda. These ties are historical, tribal, and material, dating back many years to September 11, 2001. The Taliban are well aware that if they are to take over the future Afghan government, which is recognized internationally, they will have to stay away from such banned organizations.
However, Gavin McConnell, director of the British think tank Eden Intelligence, says it would be too simplistic to believe the Taliban.
"The US administration seems to have a nightmare of impossibilities that the Taliban will sever ties with al-Qaeda and Islamic State and will not allow them to return," he said. But it has never been believed, it cannot be done and it will never be done.
Militants and their commanders have suffered heavy casualties in night raids against terrorists, based on intelligence obtained by US Special Forces and SBS raids. With the help of Afghan security, the operations of these teams, which often fly away from terrorist hideouts by helicopter and walk in the dark of night to 'kill or arrest', have proved to be very effective and have led to many attacks. Failed.
But if such operations continue after September this year, they will have to be planned and carried out outside the country. These operations will take longer and will increase the risk of being leaked. In addition, the Search for a place from which these operations can be carried out cannot be done in a single day.
A secret base in eastern Afghanistan from which US Special Forces used to target key military targets is being closed. This is good news for al-Qaeda and Islamic State, where the threat of US troops armed with sophisticated weapons attacking at any moment of the night is now gone. So what alternative place can the United States find in the region?
Geographically, Pakistan may be the best alternative, but in the West, there are strong suspicions about Pakistan's secret service, the ISI, that there are elements within it who are close to these extremist Islamic groups. There are links.
When the US intelligence agency launched Operation Neptune in May 2011 to capture Osama bin Laden, The US did not consider it appropriate to inform Pakistan and its 'Navy Cell' boarded stealth helicopters in the dark of night. Hundreds of miles into the airspace of the operation. They feared bin Laden would not be notified in advance and would not be able to escape.
Oman could be another alternative to Pakistan. Oman's stable pro-Western government has allowed several foreign bases. The UK is using large bases in Tomaria and, more recently, in the Arabian Sea coast of Daqqam. Duqm is a thousand miles from the Afghan border, and any plane would still have to pass through Pakistan's airspace to reach Afghanistan.
Bahrain could be another alternative location, with a small British naval base and a large US naval base of five. There are also Central Asian countries that share borders with Afghanistan. Immediately after the US invasion of Afghanistan on September 11, 2001, the United States used an old Soviet-era base in eastern Uzbekistan called the K2. But US troops withdrew in 2005 after relations between Uzbekistan and the United States soured. It will not be possible to send US troops to the base again despite invitations, as the base is contaminated with radiation and chemicals.
The bitter truth is that it will be very difficult to stop al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in remote areas of Afghanistan. There is no substitute for the availability of military resources on Afghan soil and their immediate use when needed. It will now be up to the Afghan government to show how serious it is about stopping these banned organizations.
John Renee, who has previously held senior positions in the UK government, paints a very bleak picture of the situation.
"Given the extent of extremism in Afghanistan and the extent to which foreign elements have a defensive interest in keeping terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, the threat of terrorism will increase."
